Increasing productivity could drive GDP growth, even in the face of zero growth in payrolls. Historically, this would be rare.

Silver/Gold, Nat Gas, Earnings Season, ANET, and CRWV

Earnings season continues, with reports from two blue chips - P&G and GE Aerospace. We'll also review inflation and look at the 10yr yield.

Japan's govn bond prices fell sharply last night, leading to a global selloff in bonds around the world. Long-term treasury rates in the US are rising too.

(1) Gold prices continue rising. (2) Bank earnings and the economy. (3) Retail sales and PPI data.

(1) December inflation data. (2) JPM earnings and Jamie Dimon's comments. (3) White House wants to cut credit card swipe fees.

The monthly jobs report remains weak, but it is not worsening.

Job opening survey showed fewer than expected job openings -- another data point showing a weak job market. However, for the economy overall, stronger than expected productivity growth should help bolster overall GDP growth.

US defense stocks swing on two updates from the President. We also got insight into what will happen to Vez's oil. Last, we've introduced a global risk board.

The govn released inflation figures for November. Good news, they were lower than expected. Bad news, the data might be skewed by the govn shutdown.

We'll look at oil prices over the past few years and what has been driving them lower.

After finally getting the jobs data for October and November, we see job market is still growing slower than usual -- but not collapsing.

As expected, the Fed announced a cut to interest rates yesterday. We'll go through that and look at the forecast for 2026.

December 3, 2025 Summary Amazon is hosting its Amazon Web Services (AWS) conference this week. So there's lots of chatter about its AI offering relative to competitor AI cloud providers. We'll also talk briefly about monthly payrolls from ADP. In absence of the regular govn jobs figures (delayed by the shutdown), the ADP reports have taken on greater importance. Amazon AWS Amazon is hosting its AWS conference this week.  The company gave an update on the release of its own

Google is emerging as not only a leading AI model company (with Gemini) but now also is marketing its own line of AI processors with partner Broadcom.

Today, we're creating a custom "Thanksgiving Price Index" using CPI data. We're going to cut through the noise and see how much the cost of Thanksgiving has actually been rising.

The Sept payrolls numbers were delayed by the shutdown. But we finally got a version of them this morning. Here's what they might tell us about the next Fed move.

Market datapoints today: ADP jobs data is a preview for the BLS payrolls, and HD reported earnings earnings

We'll take a look at a common metric to compare housing affordability over time: the "affordability index".