Macro Data: JOLTs and Productivity

January 8, 2026

Two key economic reports today: JOLTs (job opening and labor turnover survey) and also worker productivity.

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JOLTs

It’s jobs week, folks.  Tomorrow is the big dog – monthly jobs numbers.   Monthly inflation and monthly jobs are probably the two most important economic indicators for our purposes.  So we’ll have an update when that hits tomorrow. 

But we got a few teasers already this week.  First, the “JOLTS” report.  This report from the US Dept of Labor shows the number of job openings in the overall economy.  (It’s an estimate.)  Unfortunately it was lower than expected. Job openings in November were down -11% vs last year, and down -4% vs October.

When you combine it with the last unemployment report, you can track the “job gap” – the number of available jobs minus the number of unemployed people. 

They obviously cant fill them all 1-1, but it’s a general trend line showing which force is stronger at the moment – the companies who need workers, or the workers who need jobs.  See the chart below.  We recently passed the level where there are now more unemployed people than there are open jobs.  Unfortunately, another indicator that the job market is weakening.

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Worker Productivity

GDP, at its most basic level, is the equation below.  Total hours worked (by everyone in the entire economy) multiplied by the average output per hour. 

GDP = total hours worked x output per hour

That seems pretty straightforward, right? 

So there are two ways to grow GDP – (1) increase total hours worked or (2) increase the output per hour. 

At the moment, “total hours worked” is barely growing.  The avg workweek is steady at 34ish hours.  And the number of workers is growing about a half a percent. 

Fortunately for us, however, the average worker is becoming more productive.  This morning, US labor productivity grew at a very healthy +4.9% in 3Q'25. That's significantly above the long-term trend.

If you remember in the 2026 outlook yesterday, I separated the outlook between “GDP growth” and “workforce recession”.  Continued growth in productivity will allow for GDP to continue growing, even if we dip into a workforce recession.