Venezuela... but why?

December 3, 2025

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“You don’t send 25% of the Navy’s ships, F-35 fighters, and thousands of Marines merely to blow up drug boats.”  -- WSJ Editorial Board

After a meeting of the Cabinet yesterday, President Trump suggested that land attacks on Venezuela could begin soon. Since it seems we’re about to go to war, let’s talk about why we even care about Venezuela.  Hint: it’s not drugs. 

Let’s back up.  What’s going on?  The US Navy has assembled an invasion-sized strike force in the Caribbean near Venezuela.  The force includes the Navy’s newest and most advanced aircraft carrier, an amphibious assault ship (loaded with 2,200 Marines), a group of 8-10 other warships, and an unknown number of submarines.

The administration says that its goal is to halt the import of drugs into the US.  But needless to say, you don’t need an armada to sink some fishing boats loaded with cocaine.

And besides, Vez doesn’t contribute much to the drug trade.  They don’t make fentanyl.  They do make cocaine.  But cocaine coming from VZ is only about 10% of the total coming into the US.

But do you know what Venezuela does have?  Oil.  Lots of it.

Venezuela has the planet’s largest known reserve of crude oil. Bigger than Saudi Arabia or Texas.

Even more importantly, Venezuelan oil is the type of oil the US needs.  You see, not all oil is the same. Different oil grades have different levels of density.  Some oil flows like olive oil, but other types flow like toothpaste.  These different types need different refining facilities to process them.  US refineries (especially the ones on the Gulf Coast) mostly process the toothpaste type.

Fun fact: the US exports more oil than any other country, but we still need to import oil.  Why?  Because American oil underground is “light sweet crude”. That’s the olive oil type.  It’s great for making gasoline and plastics.  However, US oil refineries are built for “heavy sour crude”.  That’s the toothpaste kind.  This heavy sour crude can be made into diesel fuel, asphalt, and heavy fuel oil used in ships and factories.

So the US needs heavy sour crude.  You know who has a lot of heavy sour crude? Venezuela. And even tho they have a ton of it in the ground, they are not drilling and producing very much. Their ability to drill and pump for oil has been hampered by economic sanctions and general economic distress under the current Maduro regime, who came to power in 2013. Heavy sour crude requires a lot of technical expertise to extract from the ground. And Venezuela just doesnt have it.

Interestingly, do you know who else has a lot of sour crude? Russia. That’s partially why China and India remain so reliant on Russian oil exports, despite sanctions and pleas from the US.  That’s also why China has been making inroads into the political sphere in Latin America.

So the thinking is twofold: if the Maduro regime is toppled, the redevelopment of Venezuela’s oil production could begin. This would provide a new global supply of sour crude, which would stabilize and lower prices (especially for US refiners). But it would also make Russia’s supply less valuable.  It would also lessen the influence potential of China and Russia in Latin America.

It all looks good on paper. Let’s see how this works out in practice. Needless to say, the American track record of nation-building is not 100%.

Let’s be clear tho.   Maduro is a bad guy.   In 2024, he was overwhelmingly outvoted in elections.  But he refused to cede power. If he stepped down, it would be a victory for democracy.  However, the question remains – who would replace him?  Would a wellspring of functional democracy emerge to take his place?  Hmm.  I guess we’ll see.

At the moment, it seems as if the White House is hoping that Maduro will leave on his own volition.  Maduro clearly sees the massive armada that’s gathered on the sidewalk outside his house.  Maybe he’s betting that Trump isn’t willing to step foot into the quicksand that has captured (and punished) other US Presidents?  Maybe some bombs in his front porch will change his mind.